Shell Forecasts Global LNG Demand to Rise at Least 54% by 2040

Shell forecasts global LNG demand will rise at least 54% by 2040 as Asia drives growth in gas consumption, reinforcing expectations for expanding LNG supply and infrastructure.

(Reuters) — Global demand for liquefied natural gas is estimated to rise by 54-68% by 2040 and 45-85% by 2050 from 422 million metric tons in 2025, boosted by growing Asian appetite for the fuel, Shell, the world's biggest LNG trader, said on March 16.

A year ago, Shell said global demand for LNG was expected to rise to between 630 million and 718 million metric tons a year by 2040.

On Monday, it narrowed the 2040 range to 650 MMtpy and 710 MMtpy and extended its forecast to 2050 at an expected range for LNG demand of 610 MMtpy and 780 MMtpy. The company plans to grow its LNG sales by 4-5% a year.

The company added that Monday's numbers were not final, given the Iran war, which has upended oil and LNG trade.

Response to Climate Activist Resolution

At Shell's 2025 annual general meeting, climate activist investor ACCR, as part of a group of shareholders with combined assets of $86 billion, won around 21% support for a resolution questioning Shell's LNG demand outlook.

The shareholders, which included Brunel Pension Partnership, Greater Manchester Pension Fund and Merseyside Pension Fund, asked Shell to provide more information on how its growth assumptions are compatible with global energy demand and its plans to be net zero by 2050.

In its response from March 16, Shell defended its LNG strategy, saying the superchilled gas will be a vital balancing fuel for a future energy system and that its projects were competitive in terms of cost and emissions.

Global gas consumption may peak in the 2030s and has peaked in some regions such as Europe and Japan, but LNG demand is expected to grow, the oil major said.

LNG will make up more than half of overall natural gas demand growth to 2040, with Asia making up 70% of that growth, it added.

ACCR Says Questions Remain

ACCR's Oil and Gas Strategy Lead Nick Mazan said Shell's statement did not sufficiently explain how LNG would beat other sources of energy like renewables in terms of price and emissions.

He said that geopolitical crises causing LNG price spikes could dent demand.