North Dakota Output Drop, Permian Pipeline Constraints Lift U.S. Gas Futures

U.S. natural gas futures rose as freezing conditions in North Dakota cut output, while ongoing pipeline constraints in the Permian Basin continue to trap supply and pressure regional markets.

(Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 2% on March 17 on a drop in output over the past few days, likely due to freezing pipes in North Dakota.

Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.3 cents, or 1.8%, to $3.076 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).

That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next couple of weeks that should allow energy firms to take the unusual step of injecting gas into storage during the normal winter heating season in March.

RELATED: Permian Pipeline Constraints Push Waha Gas Prices Negative for 25th Straight Day

In the U.S. cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 28 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin.

Supply and Demand

Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 109.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in March, up from 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 billion cubic feet per day in December 2025.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 3.2 billion cubic feet per day over the past four days to a preliminary six-week low of 107.5 billion cubic feet per day on March 17, due primarily to reductions in North Dakota, according to LSEG data. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day.

That reduction was likely due to freezing pipes and wells with overnight lows in Bismarck, North Dakota, falling to minus six Fahrenheit (minus 21 Celsius) on March 16, according to AccuWeather. Those pipes will likely thaw soon with high temperatures expected to reach the 70s F in Bismarck on Thursday and Friday, according to the weather forecaster's projections.

Record Heat in Los Angeles

Meteorologists forecast heating demand would remain low across most of the country through April 1, but noted extreme heat in some parts of the country, like California, would boost demand for gas to fuel power generators needed to keep air conditioners humming.

High temperatures in Los Angeles will reach record-breaking levels near 99 F on March 17, Wednesday and Thursday, according to AccuWeather. That compares with average highs of around 70 F in the City of Angels at this time of year.

In the U.S. Northeast and Michigan, meanwhile, around 420,000 homes and businesses were still without power following a series of storms that have battered the region since late last week. Those outages reduce the amount of gas power generators need to burn to produce electricity.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 122.8 billion cubic feet per day this week to 114.1 billion cubic feet per day next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on March 16.

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to 18.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in March, down from a record 18.7 billion cubic feet per day in February.