EU Could Rely on U.S. for Up to 80% of LNG Imports by 2030, Report Warns
Europe’s reliance on U.S. LNG is set to deepen, with a new analysis warning that American suppliers could account for up to 80% of EU LNG imports by 2030 as long-term contracts expand.
(P&GJ) — The European Union risks developing a new energy dependency as imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas continue to rise, potentially accounting for as much as 75% to 80% of the bloc’s LNG supply by 2030, according to a new analysis by Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
The report finds that if the EU proceeds with existing LNG supply agreements and fails to sustain gas-demand reduction efforts, U.S. LNG could supply as much as 40% of the EU’s total gas and LNG imports by the end of the decade, up from 27% in 2025.
EU reliance on U.S. LNG has accelerated since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Imports of Russian gas, including pipeline deliveries and LNG, fell by roughly 75% between 2021 and 2025 as the bloc sought to diversify supply. The EU has since adopted legally binding measures to phase out Russian LNG by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by autumn 2027.
As Russian volumes declined, U.S. LNG imports rose sharply. EU purchases of U.S. LNG increased from about 21 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2021 to an estimated 81 Bcm in 2025, meaning U.S. suppliers accounted for roughly 57% of EU LNG imports last year. Thirteen EU countries imported U.S. LNG in 2025, with the Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy and Germany representing about three-quarters of total volumes.
The analysis also highlights cost concerns, noting that U.S. LNG remains the most expensive supply source for European buyers. IEEFA said growing reliance on a single supplier runs counter to the EU’s REPowerEU strategy, which aims to improve energy security through diversification, demand reduction and affordability.
Under a scenario modeled by IEEFA, additional long-term LNG agreements announced in 2025 — including deals linked to the Partnership for Transatlantic Energy Cooperation — could lift U.S. LNG imports to around 115 Bcm annually by 2030 if demand reduction stalls. That would place the U.S. at the center of Europe’s gas supply mix for the next decade.