IEA Forecasts Record LNG Capacity Surge by 2030, Poised to Reshape Global Gas Markets
Global natural gas markets are on the verge of a major transformation, with unprecedented LNG capacity growth projected through the end of the decade, according to the International Energy Agency’s new Gas 2025 outlook released Monday.
(P&GJ) — Global natural gas markets are on the verge of a major transformation, with unprecedented LNG capacity growth projected through the end of the decade, according to the International Energy Agency’s new Gas 2025 outlook released Monday.
The report forecasts that roughly 300 billion cubic meters (Bcm) per year of new LNG export capacity will be added by 2030 — the largest expansion in the industry’s history. The surge will be driven primarily by U.S. and Qatari liquefaction projects, with the United States alone sanctioning over 80 Bcm of new capacity in 2025, an all-time record for the U.S. LNG sector.
IEA officials said the expansion will help rebalance global gas markets, which have been tight and volatile since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine disrupted traditional trade flows. The new wave of projects is expected to strengthen energy security, increase supply flexibility, and ease pricing pressures that have constrained demand in recent years.
“The coming LNG wave is set to offer some respite for global gas markets,” said Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security. “As new supply comes online, notably from the United States and Qatar, it should apply downward pressure on prices and provide relief for importers worldwide.”
Global gas demand growth is projected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to below 1% in 2025, as high prices continue to curb consumption in price-sensitive markets, especially in Asia. Still, total natural gas demand is expected to increase by nearly 1.5% annually through 2030, or 380 Bcm in absolute terms, led by the Asia Pacific and Middle East regions.
In a high-case scenario, a deeper decline in LNG prices could spur additional demand growth of up to 1.7% per year, though lower prices could also reduce incentives for new project investment, potentially tightening markets again after 2030.
The IEA also highlighted a growing trend toward greater LNG market liquidity and flexibility, with destination-free contracts projected to account for over half of global volumes by 2030. The report further explores the role of carbon capture technologies, biomethane, low-emissions hydrogen, and e-methane in reducing the LNG sector’s carbon intensity.