ConocoPhillips Raises Willow Project Cost to $9 Billion, Eyes 2029 Oil Flow into Alaska System

The Alaska North Slope development is expected to deliver up to 180,000 bpd into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, supporting long-term throughput and regional crude flows.

(P&GJ) — ConocoPhillips has increased the cost estimate for its Willow oil project in Alaska to between $8.5 billion and $9 billion, citing inflation and higher North Slope construction costs, the company said in its third-quarter 2025 results.

The company said Willow, now about 50% complete, remains on schedule for first oil in early 2029. “Willow total project capital is updated to $8.5 to $9 billion, with total LNG project capital reduced to $3.4 billion,” said Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance.

“Powered by our deep, durable and diverse portfolio, we remain on track to deliver an expected $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion each year from 2026 through 2028,” Lance added.

ConocoPhillips, which operates the 600-million-barrel project on Alaska’s North Slope, said it has achieved key milestones and continues to advance construction on schedule.

The Willow project, approved by the U.S. government in 2023, is considered one of the largest new U.S. oil developments in years, expected to produce about 180,000 bpd at peak output.

Beyond Willow, the company reported third-quarter earnings of $1.7 billion ($1.38 per share), down from $2.1 billion a year earlier, as lower commodity prices offset gains from the Marathon Oil acquisition and higher output. Adjusted earnings were $2 billion ($1.61 per share).

ConocoPhillips raised its quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.84 per share and lifted full-year production guidance to 2.375 MMboe/d. It also lowered operating cost guidance to $10.6 billion.

The company now forecasts 2026 capital expenditures of $12 billion and expects flat to modest production growth next year.