March 2016, Vol. 243, No. 3

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Why Saudi Arabia Has No Intention To End The Oil Glut

In the geopolitical and oligopolistic global oil market, purely financial supply and demand has often been a secondary force, acting when it is allowed to act. It is the strategic behavior of the producing titans, not their talk or the slow-motion supply-demand balance, which has the real power to move markets. That is the case in the last two years and remains the case in 2016. The behavior of Saudi Arabia since 2014 has demonstrated the intent to increase both capacity and supply, a pattern not yet mitigated despite a distracting news feed from OPEC and the kingdom. Figure 1: Rig counts in US (oil-directed) and Saudi Arabia. Figure 1 shows the rig counts in Saudi Arabia and the United S

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