The National Energy Board (NEB) has updated its long-term energy outlook, lowering both the future price of crude and the estimated increase in Canadian oil production by 2040.
Canada’s Energy Future 2016: Update incorporates rapidly evolving energy market conditions and policy developments over the past year. The report suggests that energy use, including energy derived from fossil fuels, will continue to increase but at a slower pace compared to the NEB’s last projections and at a much slower pace than Canada has seen over the last 25 years.
In the report’s reference case, Canadian crude oil production continues to grow, but at a slower rate than in the previous report released in January, 2016. The global price of oil remains a key uncertainty for future growth.
In the electricity sector, recent policy announcements have a large impact going forward, with more growth in renewables than projected in the NEB’s January report. By 2040, coal-fired generation without carbon capture and storage technology accounts for a very small part of Canada’s electricity mix.
Earlier this month, the Government of Canada announced its plan to price carbon pollution, a central component of the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. The plan represents one of the most significant federal climate policy announcements in Canada and the NEB requires additional time to analyze its effects. This plan is not included in this update but the NEB will update its projections in 2017 to reflect the evolving climate policy frameworks in Canada.
As the only publicly available, long-term energy supply and demand outlook covering all energy commodities and all provinces and territories, the NEB’s Canada’s Energy Future series provides Canadians with a key reference point for discussing the country’s energy future.