Study Predicts 70 GW Of Fossil-Fired Capacity Retirements Next Four Years

December 2012, Vol. 239 No. 12

ICF International’s Integrated Energy Outlook suggests that system operators must work with generators to coordinate more than 70 GW of fossil-fired capacity retirements and outages associated with 400 GW of new pollution control installations over the next four years.

Though these regulations could also mean coal-fired generator retirements of more than 50 GW, ICF projects that coal generation in the U.S. will remain steady through 2020. The study also finds that the Environmental Protection Agency’s recently proposed New Source Performance Standards for greenhouse gases from new generation sources, does not impact the going forward capacity build-out.

In the gas market, last winter’s record warm weather reduced core gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors and caused gas prices to fall to $2 per MMBtu. These prices are not sustainable. As projected, producers have begun to cut back gas development and redirect drilling activity to oil and natural gas liquids. As a result, gas prices have started to firm.

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