In a report released Nov. 30, Ziff Energy forecasts that natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico will fall to 4 Bcf/d in 2020 from 14 Bcf/d in 2001.
That is, 2020 production will be at 28 percent of 2001 levels.
“The overall decline (9 percent per year) in gas production since 2000 is due principally to the Shelf and Deep Shelf, which, by 2020, will represent under a third of offshore gas production, down from 80 percent in 2000,” notes Simon Mauger, P.Geol., Director Gas Services. Shelf and Deep Shelf is mostly non-associated gas, while Deepwater is mainly associated gas.
The analysis indicates that nine hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico between 2002 and 2008 produced a loss of an average of 10 percent of gas production per year.
Figure 1 shows the impact of hurricanes on Gulf of Mexico gas production.